CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30619/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T19:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1330.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 767.790 Acceleration: -0.534665 Duration in seconds: 210103.21 Duration in days: 2.4317501 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.53 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 655.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/05/2024 Time: 19:45 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 18.12 hour(s)
Difference: -10.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-05-10T15:23Z
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